State of the District — Q2 2026

Inaugural issue. This report documents conditions in NY-23 as of June 11, 2026, with emphasis on the second quarter, and sets Rep. Langworthy’s votes, statements, and public silences alongside them. Attribution tiers are used throughout: Tier 1 (the affected party or an official filing names the cause), Tier 2 (strong inferential), Projected (modeled, not yet realized), and Unattributed (real losses with contested, multi-causal, or non-policy causes). Where this report links a LangworthyWatch fact-check, the underlying sourcing and archive links live there.

The Quarter in One Table

1. Economy and Jobs

The quarter’s defining loss is the eSolutions Furniture closure — the former Bush Industries, a Jamestown manufacturer since 1959, which told more than 230 workers on April 30 that the plant was closing. The company’s insolvency filing names “the imposition of tariffs by the U.S. government” among four causes, alongside post-pandemic demand decline, offshore competition, and cash constraints. It is the district’s only Tier 1 tariff-attributed job loss, and it is multi-causal by the company’s own account. Full documentation: 230 Jobs in His Hometown.

The closure landed on a county already absorbing approximately 1,990 workers across 20 WARN mass-layoff notices through March 30 (NY DOL WARN Dashboard) — the backdrop documented in the beagle pattern entry.

Cross-border economy: Travel from Canada to areas near the border fell by more than 21% in 2025 — “a decrease of nearly 3.6 million visitors” — per State Comptroller DiNapoli’s April 2026 release, titled “Federal Tariffs and Other Actions Hurt Tourism and NY Exports” (Tier 2; the tariffs are executive action with no House vote). This lands on the district’s Erie/Niagara/Chautauqua edge.

Documented offsetting positives, with equal prominence: Chautauqua County’s median household income rose 25% from 2019 to 2024 in nominal terms ($46,820 to $58,351, ACS 5-year estimates per the County Executive’s announcement; roughly 9–10% after inflation); the county IDA backed a new WMC Grape Juice pouch facility in Westfield offering some grape growers an alternative market from fall 2026.

2. Healthcare

Realized:

• The enhanced ACA premium tax credits expired December 31, 2025, and remain expired. The House passed a three-year extension — H.R. 1834 — 230–196 on January 8 with 17 Republicans in favor; Langworthy voted Nay (Roll Call 11). The Senate has not acted. NY DOH states costs in the QHP market “are nearly 40% higher than they would otherwise be”; the Governor’s office puts the average increase for roughly 140,000 subsidized enrollees at 38% (Southern Tier: 48%).
• New York’s Essential Plan eligibility reverts from 250% to 200% of the federal poverty level on July 1, 2026 — ending coverage for approximately 450,000 New Yorkers statewide. NY DOH calls this “a direct result of H.R. 1,” which Langworthy voted for. (District-level figures do not exist; the statewide number is not extrapolated.)
• $212 million in Rural Health Transformation Program funds reached New York State (authorized by H.R. 1) — but as of June 11, no named NY-23 hospital has received a disbursement, while NY-23 contains 8 hospitals at risk of closure, the most of any NY district. See the $212M entry.
• Three Chautauqua County nursing homes have closed or announced closure since November 2023; one operated below the federal staffing floor that OBBBA §71111 — which Langworthy voted for — blocks from enforcement until 2034. See the SNF cluster entry.

Projected, not yet realized: Medicaid work requirements (December 31, 2026) and six-month redeterminations (January 1, 2027); CBO and state coverage-loss projections. SNAP ABAWD work requirements went live statewide March 1, 2026, with the first benefit losses possible this month — county caseload data is not yet published.

Not attributable to OBBBA: The Westfield Memorial and Ira Davenport REH conversions were driven by chronically low inpatient volume and predate or are independent of OBBBA’s effects.

3. Energy and Costs

Three separate things happened to energy costs, with three separate causes that should not be collapsed:

1. Wholesale electricity roughly 80% higher — from under 10 cents/kWh in January 2025 to over 17 cents/kWh in January 2026, per NYISO data presented by NYSEG to the Tompkins County Legislature (statewide wholesale-market figures, equally applicable to NY-23). NYSEG’s Patrick Fox attributed the increase to the energy market and “very tight infrastructure in the state pipeline infrastructure” during cold weather. Domestic and non-federal.
2. Delivery rates: The NY Public Service Commission granted only temporary, partial NYSEG/RG&E increases effective June 1 (residential impacts 0.2%–2.9%) — far below the ~23.7% and ~26% requests still pending. A state matter; final orders expected in the coming months.
3. Liquid fuels carry the Iran-conflict premium: NY Harbor heating oil ended May at $3.435/gallon, about $1.52 above a year earlier; EIA forecasts wholesale diesel at $3.40/gallon for 2026, $1.34 above its February forecast (retail diesel runs well above that). Per EIA, natural gas prices “remain relatively flat in 2026 as supply growth outpaces demand” — which matters because the district heats predominantly with gas and propane, blunting the conflict’s effect on home heating.

4. Agriculture

The Refresco cancellation — 126 growers, ~2,600 acres of mostly Concord grapes, effective with the fall 2026 harvest — is not attributable to any 2025–26 federal policy. Refresco’s stated reason is “sustained grape market challenges and supply imbalances”; Cornell’s Lake Erie Regional Grape Program concurs that oversupply and long-term juice-demand decline are the drivers. The federal response to it — strong on the prior oversupply problem, thin on the buyer-exit problem — is documented in the grape belt entry.

District-level dairy, H-2A labor, and input-cost data could not be sourced to primary documents this quarter and are flagged as gaps, not findings.

5. Federal Footprint

Dollars in:

• $60,493,661 FEMA Public Assistance award to rebuild Jasper-Troupsburg’s twice-flooded campus (90% federal cost share) — see the fact-check, which rates Langworthy’s “helped secure” claim MOSTLY TRUE
• $212M RHTP to the state (above)

Dollars out:

• WSKG lost $1.3 million a year — 21% of its budget — when the Rescissions Act (H.R. 4) eliminated all Corporation for Public Broadcasting funding. Langworthy voted Yea, calling it “a significant step towards restoring fiscal sanity.” WSKG’s CEO says the cut ended a planned Oneonta–Cooperstown newsroom expansion.
• FEMA’s BRIC program — the principal federal pre-disaster flood-mitigation grant program, more than $4.6B allocated FY2020–2023 — was canceled in April 2025, then restored by federal court order in March 2026 after a judge ruled (Dec. 11, 2025) that the termination was unlawful. FEMA reopened it on March 25, 2026 as a $1B FY2024–25 round (applications due July 23, 2026). The district that just received $60.5M to rebuild a twice-flooded school went roughly eleven months with no open pre-disaster funding round; BRIC now funds prevention only if NY-23 communities apply and are selected. See the fact-check.
• SNAP ABAWD work requirements live since March 1; first benefit losses possible in June.

6. The Record (the same window)

Votes:

Statements documented this quarter: “50 state, coast to coast” Oversight effort (three states on the record — fact-check); “Democrats yet again voted to defund” immigration enforcement, posted about an operation that ran under already-enacted funding (fact-check); “helped secure $60.5 million” for Jasper-Troupsburg (substantially accurate — fact-check).

No statement located on: the eSolutions closure (230+ hometown jobs); BRIC (its cancellation, the December 2025 court ruling reversing it, or its March 2026 reinstatement); the FEMA Review Council’s May 7 final report proposing to replace the Public Assistance program; the WARN-documented county job losses; the pending NYSEG/RG&E final rate requests.

7. What Cannot Be Attributed (standing section)

• Refresco: long-term Concord oversupply and juice-demand decline, per the company and Cornell — not federal policy.
• The ~80% wholesale electricity spike: weather and in-state pipeline constraints — not federal policy, not the Iran conflict.
• NYSEG/RG&E rate cases: a state PSC matter.
• Westfield Memorial and Ira Davenport REH conversions: chronic low volume, independent of OBBBA.
• eSolutions, fully: tariffs are one of four causes named in the filing; demand decline, offshore competition, and a year of missed lender payments are the others.

8. Watch List for Q3

Method note: This issue draws on a June 11, 2026 economic attribution analysis, with load-bearing figures verified against primary records (House Clerk roll calls, DOJ and FEMA releases, company filings as reported, NY DOH and Comptroller publications) or carried by the linked fact-checks. Figures that could not be confirmed in primary documents are flagged as gaps. Where data shows conditions improving or federal policy producing documented local benefits, it is reported with the same prominence as harms.

Primary Sources

Figures carried by linked LangworthyWatch fact-checks are sourced and archived within those entries. The standalone figures in this issue trace to:

Healthcare:

• NY DOH: Federal Approval to Preserve Health Coverage (Mar. 23, 2026) — Essential Plan 450,000 / July 1 / “a direct result of H.R. 1”; QHP costs “nearly 40% higher than they would otherwise be”
• Governor’s Office: Hochul Slams Washington Republicans for Surging Health Care Costs for 140,000 New Yorkers (Jan. 2, 2026) — 140,000 enrollees; 38% average; Southern Tier 48%
• Clerk of the House: Roll Call 11 — H.R. 1834, On Passage (Jan. 8, 2026) — 230–196 (R 17–196, D 213–0); Langworthy Nay

Economy:

• NY State Comptroller: Federal Tariffs and Other Actions Hurt Tourism and NY Exports (Apr. 2026) — Canadian travel “more than 21%” / “nearly 3.6 million” fewer visitors
• Chautauqua County: County Emerges as Leader in NY Economic and Income Growth — median household income $46,820 (2019) → $58,351 (2024), ACS 5-year estimates (nominal)

Energy:

• EIA: Short-Term Energy Outlook (June 9, 2026 edition) — Brent $107/bbl May; wholesale diesel $3.40/gal 2026; natural gas “remain relatively flat in 2026”
• EIA: NY Harbor No. 2 Heating Oil spot prices — $3.435/gal (May 29, 2026), $1.52 above a year earlier
• Tompkins Weekly: Utility Bills Spike as NYSEG Seeks Major Rate Hikes (Feb. 24, 2026) — NYISO 10¢→17¢/kWh (~80%); NYSEG’s Patrick Fox quote

Federal footprint:

• WSKG: House Set to Vote on Trump’s Rescission Package — What It Means for WSKG (Jul. 17, 2025) — “$1.3 million / 21 percent of WSKG’s annual budget”
• NY Focus: Public Radio, TV Cuts (Jul. 30, 2025) — CEO Natasha Thompson on the Oneonta–Cooperstown newsroom expansion

Published: June 11, 2026 · Issue 1