What the One Big Beautiful Bill Act costs — and who pays

10-year impact, 2025–2034. Hard CBO/JCT score, current-law baseline.

$3.4T

added to the deficit (primary)

$4.1T

added to the debt, with interest

$5.5T

if the 2028 sunsets are extended

+10 pts

debt-to-GDP, toward ~124% by 2034

The arithmetic

$4.5T

gross tax cuts

−

$1.3T

spending cuts (Medicaid $1.1T + SNAP $0.2T)

$0.7T

added interest

$4.1T

added to the national debt

Who gains, and who carries it

Benefits flow up — now

~70%

of the law's value goes to the top 10% of households (Penn Wharton); ~80% by 2033.
the top quintile gains ~$65,000 over a lifetime; the middle, under $500.

Costs flow down — later

~$31,000

in new debt per household (illustrative: $4.1T ÷ ~132M households).
the bottom 20% lose income by the early 2030s as Medicaid & SNAP are cut to help pay for it.
$19 trillion total cost over 30 years as written.

All future generations are worse off.— Penn Wharton Budget Model, on the signed law

Growth doesn't pay for it: every model finds offsets recoup only ~16–19% of the cost — and CBO's dynamic score comes in higher (~$4.7T), because added debt raises interest rates and crowds out investment.
Baseline caveat: the $3.4T figure uses current-law scoring (the convention). A current-policy baseline treats extending the 2017 cuts as free, making the bill look near deficit-neutral — a ~$3.8T gap that even Republican budget hawks called "fairy dust." Always state which baseline a number uses.
Sources: CBO (Pub. 61570, 61466, 61459, 61486), JCT, CRFB, Penn Wharton Budget Model, Tax Policy Center, Yale Budget Lab.